Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Maharashtra, Coastal & North Interior Karnataka during next 5 days

Realised weather in past 24 hours till 0830 hours IST of today:(details in Annexure I)

Yesterday, Heat wave conditions prevailed in isolated pockets of south Uttar Pradesh.
Yesterday, Maximum temperatures were mostly in the range of 43-46°C in isolated pockets of south Haryana, Delhi, south Uttar Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and southwest Bihar. These were above normal by 2-4°C over these areas.
Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 45.8°C was reported at Jhansi (West Uttar Pradesh) over the country.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka; heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Konkan & Goa and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Odisha, West Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.
Dust storm observed at isolated places over Rajasthan.
Hailstorm observed at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh.
Gusty winds/squally winds data reported over the country is attached in Annexure II.

Advance of Southwest Monsoon:

Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, south Maharashtra, Telangana and some parts of south Chhattisgarh & south Odisha and some more parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh today, the 08th June, 2024.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon now passes through 18.0°N/60°E, 18.0°N/65°E, 17.5°N/70°E, Harnai, Baramati, Nizamabad, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E and Islampur. (Annexure III)
Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra (including Mumbai) and Telangana during next 2-3 days.

Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings: (Annexure IV)

A cyclonic circulation lies over central Assam & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels. Strong southwesterly/southerly winds are prevailing from Bay of Bengal to northeastern States in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 7 days.
Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during 08th-12th; Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during 09th-12th; Nagaland on 08th & 12th June, 2024. Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over Assam & Meghalaya on 11th & 12th June.

A shear zone runs roughly along 16°N in lower & middle tropospheric levels. A trough runs from Maharashtra to north Kerala in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:

Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-50 kmph) likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, and Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep; isolated light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during next 5 days.
Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka on 12th; Kerala & Mahe during 10th-12th; South Interior Karnataka during 08th-10th; Marathwada, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Telangana on 08th June, 2024. ✓ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal & North Interior Karnataka during 08th-11th; Kerala & Mahe on 08th & 09th June, 2024. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over Konkan & Goa during 08th-10th; Madhya Maharashtra during 09th-11th; Coastal Karnataka on 08th-09th and North Interior Karnataka on 09th June.

A cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Madhya Pradesh and another over east Bihar in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence:

Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during next 4-5 days.

Isolated hailstorm and squally winds (50-60 kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh on 08th & 09th June, 2024.

A Western Disturbance seen as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies roughly along Long. 70°E to the north of Lat. 30°N. Prevailing southwesterly winds from Arabian Sea over the plains of Northwest India are likely to continue during next 2 days. Under their influence:

Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm & lightning very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 08th-09th June, 2024.
Duststorm and thundersquall very likely over Rajasthan on 08th & 09th June, 2024. Maximum temperature observation and forecast for next 5 days:
Rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C very likely over East India during next 2 days and no significant change thereafter.
Rise in maximum temperatures by 3-4°C very likely over Northwest India except Rajasthan during next 5 days.
No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over Central India during next 3 days and rise by 2-3°C thereafter.
No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over rest parts of the country.

Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal during 08th-12th; Odisha, Punjab, Haryana during 09th-12th; Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh during 10th-12th June, 2024.
Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of Uttar Pradesh on 08th and heat wave to severe heat wave conditions in some parts over the region during 09th-12th June, 2024.
Hot and humid weather very likely to prevail over isolated pockets of Odisha on 08th June, 2024.
Warm night very likely to prevail over Bihar on 08th & 09th June, 2024.