Noida: ABP Network is the first media network to conduct an Opinion Poll Survey for all four states and a union territory that go to polls in 2021 – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. Conducted with research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), the opinion poll survey aims to provide a clearer picture of how the ballot game stands for the five states.
Last year, as the highly-dramatic Bihar Elections drew to a close, ABP Network’s Exit Poll was the only poll in the industry to hit the mark. It not only vindicated a prediction of a close fight, but also produced an accurate vote share projection.
What’s more is that, this Opinion Poll Survey marks the beginning of ABP Network’s reign in the southern region as the network is likely to soon catapult into the Tamil Nadu market.
The ABPNetwork-CVoter survey revealed that as per public opinion, TMC is leading in West Bengal with 43.0% vote share (154 to 162 seats), whereas BJP stands second with 37.5% vote share (98 to 106 seats).
| West Bengal | Party Alliance : Votes | ||
| Alliance Votes | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| TMC | 44.9 | 43.0 | -1.9 |
| BJP | 10.2 | 37.5 | 27.3 |
| INC+LEFT | 32.0 | 11.8 | -20.2 |
| Others | 12.9 | 7.7 | -5.2 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| West Bengal | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats | From | Seats | To |
| TMC | 154 | to | 162 |
| BJP | 98 | to | 106 |
| INC+LEFT | 26 | to | 34 |
| Others | 2 | to | 6 |
| Total | 294 | ||
In Tamil Nadu, UPA is leading with 41.1% vote share (158 to 166 seats), whereas NDA stands second with 28.7% vote share (60 to 68 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 15.7% vote share (0 to 4 seats).
| Tamil Nadu | Party Alliance : Votes | |||
| Alliance Votes | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing | |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 39.4 | 41.1 | 1.7 | |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 43.7 | 28.7 | -15.0 | |
| MNM | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | |
| AMMK | 0.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | |
| Others | 16.9 | 15.7 | -1.2 | |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| Tamil Nadu | Projected Range Of Seats | |||
| Alliance Seats | From | Seats | To | |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 158 | to | 166 | |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 60 | to | 68 | |
| MNM | 0 | to | 4 | |
| AMMK | 2 | to | 6 | |
| Others | 0 | to | 4 | |
| Total | 234 | |||
In Assam, NDA is leading with 43.1% vote share (73 to 81 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 34.9% vote share (36 to 44 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 13.8% vote share (0 to 4 seats).
| Assam | Party Alliance : Votes | ||
| Alliance Votes : Assam | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| NDA | 41.9 | 43.1 | 1.2 |
| UPA | 31.0 | 34.9 | 3.9 |
| AIUDF | 13.0 | 8.2 | -4.8 |
| Others | 14.1 | 13.8 | -0.3 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Assam | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : Assam | From | Seats | To |
| NDA | 73 | to | 81 |
| UPA | 36 | to | 44 |
| AIUDF | 5 | to | 9 |
| Others | 0 | to | 4 |
| Total | 126 | ||
In Kerala, LDF is leading with 41.6% vote share (81 to 89 seats), whereas UDF stands second with 34.6% vote share (49 to 57 Seats). BJP grabs the third spot with mere 15.3% vote share (0 to 2 seats).
| Kerala | Party Alliance : Votes | ||
| Alliance Votes : Kerala | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| LDF | 43.5 | 41.6 | -1.9 |
| UDF | 38.8 | 34.6 | -4.2 |
| BJP | 14.9 | 15.3 | 0.4 |
| Others | 2.8 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Kerala | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : Kerala | From | Seats | To |
| LDF | 81 | to | 89 |
| UDF | 49 | to | 57 |
| BJP | 0 | to | 2 |
| Others | 0 | to | 2 |
| Total | 140 | ||
In Puducherry, NDA is leading with 44.4% vote share (14 to 18 seats), whereas SDA stands second with 42.6% vote share (12-16 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 10.7% vote share (0 to 1 seat).
| Puducherry | Party Alliance : Votes | ||
| Alliance Votes : Puducherry | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| SDA (Congress+DMK) | 39.5 | 42.6 | 3.1 |
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 30.5 | 44.4 | 13.9 |
| MNM | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Others | 30.0 | 10.7 | -19.3 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Puducherry | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats : Puducherry | From | Seats | To |
| SDA (Congress+DMK) | 12 | to | 16 |
| NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) | 14 | to | 18 |
| MNM | 0 | to | 1 |
| Others | 0 | to | 1 |
| Total | 30 | ||
The past two years have certainly been action-packed as far as elections and shifts of power are concerned, but 2021 is going to be even more momentous. Key regions like Tamil Nadu in South and Assam in North-East will make the political battle all the more engrossing.
As for the methodology and survey details, the CVoter survey reached out to a total of approximately 5000+ people in Assam, 6000+ people in Kerala, 1000+ people in Puducherry, 15000+ people in Tamil Nadu, 18000+ people in West Bengal, making it a total of 45000+ people. It was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey).
Comments are closed.