ABP Network-CVoter Survey unravels the political battles of the year; TMC stands tall in West Bengal with 43.0% vote share, followed by BJP with 37.5% vote share

Noida: ABP Network is the first media network to conduct an Opinion Poll Survey for all four states and a union territory that go to polls in 2021 – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. Conducted with research partner CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research), the opinion poll survey aims to provide a clearer picture of how the ballot game stands for the five states.

Last year, as the highly-dramatic Bihar Elections drew to a close, ABP Network’s Exit Poll was the only poll in the industry to hit the mark. It not only vindicated a prediction of a close fight, but also produced an accurate vote share projection.

What’s more is that, this Opinion Poll Survey marks the beginning of ABP Network’s reign in the southern region as the network is likely to soon catapult into the Tamil Nadu market.

The ABPNetwork-CVoter survey revealed that as per public opinion, TMC is leading in West Bengal with 43.0% vote share (154 to 162 seats), whereas BJP stands second with 37.5% vote share (98 to 106 seats).

West Bengal Party Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes 2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
TMC 44.9 43.0 -1.9
BJP 10.2 37.5 27.3
INC+LEFT 32.0 11.8 -20.2
Others 12.9 7.7 -5.2
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
West Bengal Projected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats From Seats To
TMC 154 to 162
BJP 98 to 106
INC+LEFT 26 to 34
Others 2 to 6
Total 294

In Tamil Nadu, UPA is leading with 41.1% vote share (158 to 166 seats), whereas NDA stands second with 28.7% vote share (60 to 68 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 15.7% vote share (0 to 4 seats).

Tamil Nadu Party Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes 2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) 39.4 41.1 1.7
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) 43.7 28.7 -15.0
MNM 0.0 6.7 6.7
AMMK 0.0 7.8 7.8
Others 16.9 15.7 -1.2
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
Tamil Nadu Projected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats From Seats To
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) 158 to 166
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) 60 to 68
MNM 0 to 4
AMMK 2 to 6
Others 0 to 4
Total 234

In Assam, NDA is leading with 43.1% vote share (73 to 81 seats), whereas UPA stands second with 34.9% vote share (36 to 44 Seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 13.8% vote share (0 to 4 seats).

Assam Party Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Assam 2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
NDA 41.9 43.1 1.2
UPA 31.0 34.9 3.9
AIUDF 13.0 8.2 -4.8
Others 14.1 13.8 -0.3
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
Assam Projected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : Assam From Seats To
NDA 73 to 81
UPA 36 to 44
AIUDF 5 to 9
Others 0 to 4
Total 126

In Kerala, LDF is leading with 41.6% vote share (81 to 89 seats), whereas UDF stands second with 34.6% vote share (49 to 57 Seats). BJP grabs the third spot with mere 15.3% vote share (0 to 2 seats).

Kerala Party Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Kerala 2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
LDF 43.5 41.6 -1.9
UDF 38.8 34.6 -4.2
BJP 14.9 15.3 0.4
Others 2.8 8.5 5.7
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
Kerala Projected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : Kerala From Seats To
LDF 81 to 89
UDF 49 to 57
BJP 0 to 2
Others 0 to 2
Total 140

In Puducherry, NDA is leading with 44.4% vote share (14 to 18 seats), whereas SDA stands second with 42.6% vote share (12-16 seats). Others grab the third spot with mere 10.7% vote share (0 to 1 seat).

Puducherry Party Alliance : Votes
Alliance Votes : Puducherry 2016 Results 2021 Projection Swing
SDA (Congress+DMK) 39.5 42.6 3.1
NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) 30.5 44.4 13.9
MNM 0.0 2.3 2.3
Others 30.0 10.7 -19.3
Total 100.0 100.0 0.0
Puducherry Projected Range Of Seats
Alliance Seats : Puducherry From Seats To
SDA (Congress+DMK) 12 to 16
NDA (AINRC+BJP+ADMK) 14 to 18
MNM 0 to 1
Others 0 to 1
Total 30

The past two years have certainly been action-packed as far as elections and shifts of power are concerned, but 2021 is going to be even more momentous. Key regions like Tamil Nadu in South and Assam in North-East will make the political battle all the more engrossing.

As for the methodology and survey details, the CVoter survey reached out to a total of approximately 5000+ people in  Assam, 6000+ people in Kerala, 1000+ people in Puducherry, 15000+ people in Tamil Nadu, 18000+ people in West Bengal, making it a total of 45000+ people. It was conducted through CATI (Telephonic survey).