First Advance Estimates of National Income, 2021-22

New Delhi : The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is releasing in this Press Note the First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Income at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, for the financial year 2021-22 along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts.

2.    The First Advance Estimates of GDP, introduced in 2016-17 to serve as essential inputs to the Budget exercise, is based on limited data and compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year (2020-21 in this case) are extrapolated using relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors.

3.   Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditure Components of GDP for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

4.   Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 is estimated at ₹147.54 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of ₹135.13 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2021. The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 per cent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21. Real GVA at Basic Prices is estimated at ₹135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against ₹124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6 percent.

5.  Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated at ₹232.15 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of ₹197.46 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2021. The growth in nominal GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 17.6 per cent. Nominal GVA at Basic Prices is estimated at ₹210.37 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against ₹179.15 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 17.4 percent.

6.  The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of first 7 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2021 (iii) 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production, (iv) Accounts of  Central & State Governments, (v) Bank Deposits & Credits, (vi) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (vii) Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, (viii) Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, (ix) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, etc., available for first 8 months of the financial year. Projections for 2021-22 for passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports made available by the concerned agencies were also made use of in compilation of estimates of respective sectors. Percentage change in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.

7.  The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST revenue and GST revenue. The Budget Estimates of tax revenue for 2021-22, as available on Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) websites have been used for estimating taxes on products at current prices.  For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and the expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto October 2021 as available on CAG website along with the Centre/Statewise BE provision for 2021-22. Information available on Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc. based on detailed analysis of budget documents of Centre and States for 2021-22 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).

8.  However, these are early projections for 2021-22. Actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months, fresh relief measures for the vulnerable sections (such as providing free food grains which has now been extended till March 2022) and other measures, if any, taken by the Government to contain the spread of Covid-19 would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. The First Revised Estimates for 2020-21 (benchmark year), due for release on 31.01.2022, may also lead to revision in growth rates reflected in FAE. Estimates are therefore likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take this into consideration when interpreting the figures.

9.  The release of Second Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2021-22 and quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2021 (Q3 2021-22) will be on 28.02.2022.

Annexure