Economy turns from slow to steady in October and November, Q3 and Q4 GDP of FY 2021 seen in positive growth trajectory: PHD Chamber

New Delhi: Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry has expressed confidence in the ongoing economic recovery which has  turned to steady growth trajectory from the severe slowdown faced in  Q1 FY 2020-21 caused by pandemic covid-19, in a press statement issued here today.

Out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 6 have performed positive of which foreign exchange reserves have shown a highest sequential growth of 11% in November 2020.

The economic reforms undertaken by the Government have instilled the expectations of a positive growth in Q3 FY2021 with robust resumption of the lost economic and business activity, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply side indicators along with external sector and financial indicators, said Sh. Aggarwal

Economic and business indicators such as stock market, employment, railway freight,  exchange rate, FOREX reserves and  Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) have shown positive sequential growth in November 2020 as compared with October 2020, he said

Level of employment in the country is improving as unemployment has improved from 7% in October 2020 to 6.5% in November 2020, said Sh. Aggarwal

However, indicators such as E way bill, passenger vehicle sales, manufacturing PMI and  GST collection have shown sequential deceleration in November 2020 as compared to the previous month of October 2020.

We believe that  improvement in 6 economic and business indicators on sequential basis is a good indication that economy is in steady growth trajectory and moving in right direction, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

We appreciate that the government has taken very effective and meaningful reforms to rejuvenate economy from the daunting impact of Covid-19, said Sh.  Aggarwal

PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends for November 2020: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far

S. No. Economic and Business Indicators September 2020 October 2020 Growth

(Sequential)

November 2020 Growth

(Sequential)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 GST Collection (in Rs crore) 95480 105155 10.1% 104963 (-)0.2%
2 E way bill  (in Millions) 57.4 64.1 11.7% 55.3 (-)13.7%
3 Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)* 6.67 6.98 (-)4.6% 6.51 6.7%
4 Railway Freight (MT) 102 108 5.8% 110 1.6%
5 Passenger  Vehicle Sales (units) 272027 310294 14.1% 286353 (-)7.7%
6 Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion) 499.9 518.3 3.7% 575.2 11.0%
7 Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)* 73.56 74.55 (-)1.3% 73.99 0.8%
8 Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average) 38379 40115 4.5% 43011 7.2%
9 Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.8 58.9 3.7% 56.3 (-)4.4%
10 Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) 80.3 82.4 2.6% 87.03 5.6%
Overall growth performance of indicators of QET 8↑/10 6↑/10

Source : PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI, compiled from various sources

Note : *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate and unemployment are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa.

 Going ahead, the Government’s recent economic reform measures introduced under Aatmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 will have a multiplier effect on the economic growth trajectory through enhanced demand, job creation, increased private investments, escalated exports and growth of sectors that have strong backward and forward linkages, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

The recent reforms such as Production Linked Incentive Scheme for 10 champion sectors, Central Government’s contribution of 24% of EPF wages (12%+12%) for establishments having upto 1000 employees and 12% (employee part) of EPF for establishments having more than 1000 employees for 2 years, income tax relief to developers and home buyers, among others, have potential to push the GDP growth in the positive trajectory of 0.1% to 2% in the Q3 FY 2020-21 and 2% to 4% in the Q4 FY 2020-21, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

Provision of Rs 1.46 lakh crore under Production Linked Incentive Scheme for 10 champion sectors will help link India to global value chains, encourage exports, give companies a competitive edge in the global market and make India a global manufacturing hub in the coming times, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

Reforms such as emergency credit line for MSMEs, liquidity scheme and partial credit guarantee scheme 2.0 for NBFCs, extension of the credit linked subsidy scheme (CLSS) scheme till March 2021, structural reforms in growth promising sectors including coal, minerals, defence, airports and aerospace management, power, space sector, atomic energy sector and civil aviation, six months moratorium on term loans, among others, have made recovery sooner than expected, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

At this juncture, demand creation along with increased spending on infrastructure will have multiplier effects on the economic growth trajectory by boosting private investments, creating new employment opportunities in the country, generating demand for commodities such as steel, cement and power, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.

The planned Rs 111 lakh crore investment in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has a great potential to boost the GDP growth of the country as correlation between the investment in infrastructure and economic growth is quite high, said Sh. Aggarwal.