Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours

The Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 06 hours and  lay centred at  about 520 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 560 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around 25th November 2020 afternoon as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Date/Time(IST) Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
23.11.20/1130 9.6/84.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
23.11.20/2330 10.1/82.8 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
24.11.20/1130 10.5/81.9 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
24.11.20/2330 10.9/81.1 90-100 gusting to 110 Severe Cyclonic Storm
25.11.20/1130 11.6/80.3 110-120 gusting to 135 Severe Cyclonic Storm
25.11.20/2330 12.5/79.2 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
26.11.20/1130 13.5/78.3 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression

 

Warnings:

 (i)    Heavy Rainfall Warning

 

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 24th to 26th November and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema during 25th to 26th and Telangana during 26th to 27th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ariyalur & Perabalu districts during 24th and Kadalur, Kallakurchi, Puducherry, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu to Ariyalur, Perambalur and Karaikal districts during 25th) and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Rayalaseema (Nellore and Chittoor districts) on 25th & 26th and over Telangana on 26th November, 2020.

Sub-Divisions 23 Nov 2020* 24 Nov 2020* 25 Nov 2020* 26 Nov 2020* 27 Nov 2020*
Coastal Andhra Pradesh Rainfall  at a few places places Rainfall  at a few places with heavy rainfall at isolated places Rainfall  at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls Rainfall  at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls Rainfall  at many places with isolated heavy falls
Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal Rainfall  at many places  with  heavy rainfall at isolated places Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall with extremely heavy falls at  isolated places Rainfall  at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at  isolated places Rainfall  at many places  with  heavy rainfall at isolated places over north Tamilnadu Rainfall  at many places  with  heavy rainfall at isolated places
South Interior Karnataka Rainfall  at isolated places Rainfall  at a few  places Rainfall  at many  places with heavy rainfall at isolated places Rainfall  at many  places with heavy rainfall at isolated places Rainfall  at many  places
Rayalaseema Rainfall  at a few  places Rainfall  at  many places with isolated heavy falls Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall with extremely heavy falls at  isolated places Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall with extremely heavy falls at  isolated places Rainfall  at many  places with heavy rainfall at isolated places
Telangana Rainfall  at isolated places Rainfall  at  isolated places Rainfall  at  a few places with isolated heavy falls Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy  rainfall with extremely heavy falls at  isolated places Rainfall  at many  places
South Chattisgarh and South Odisha Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls  

 

 

(ii) Wind warning

Squally weather with wind speed of 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely over Southwest & adjoining west-central & southeast Bay of Bengal and along & off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts on 23rd November. It would increase gradually becoming 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over the southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal  and 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph along and off Tamil Nadu and adjoining  South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar from 24th November morning. It would further increase becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over the southwest Bay of Bengal  along and off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts), 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining  westcentral Bay along and off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Prakasham districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off districts of south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu from 25th November morning for subsequent 12 hrs.

(iii) Sea condition

Sea condition is rough to very rough over Southwest & adjoining west-central & southeast Bay of Bengal and along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become High over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coast and very rough along and off south Andhra Pradesh coast and also over Gulf of Mannar on 24th . The sea condition would be very high over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts and high along and off south Tamil Nadu & south Andhra Pradesh coasts and also over Gulf of Mannar on 25th November, 2020.

(iv)  Strom Surge Warning

Tidal wave of about 1m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas near the place of landfall.

(v)  Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southwest & adjoining west-central & southeast Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mannar and along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during 23-25th November. Also the fishermen out at Sea are advised to return to the coast and avoid the above sea area.

 

(vi) Damage expected over and Action suggested:

 

Ø   Major damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and Unattached metal sheets may fly. Ø  Damage to power and communication lines. Ø  Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Ø   Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees. Ø  Major damage to coastal crops. Ø  Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

Ø Total suspension of fishing operations. Ø Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. Movement in motor boats unsafe.

2. Cyclonic Storm “GATI” weakened into a Deep Depression

The cyclonic storm “GATI” over north Somalia moved nearly westwards with a speed of about 15 kmph during past 06 hours, weakened into a Deep Depression and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of 23rd November 2020 over the same region near Latitude 10.7°N and Longitude 49.2°E, 220 km west-southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 06 hours and into a well marked low pressure area during subsequent 06 hours.

Forecast track and intensity are given below:

Date/Time(IST) Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
23.11.20/1130 10.7/49.2 55-65 Gusting TO 75 Deep Depression
23.11.20/1730 10.6/48.5 40-50 Gusting TO 60 Depression
23.11.20/2330 10.7/47.6 20-30 Gusting TO 40 Low Pressure Area

 (i) Wind warning

Gale wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing over Gulf of Eden along and off Somalia coast and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph prevails over southwest Arabian Sea along and off north Somalia coast during next 06 hours.  It will gradually decrease and becoming 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over the above areas during subsequent 06 hours.

(ii) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough to very rough over Gulf of Eden along and off north Somalia coast and over southwest Arabian Sea during next 12 hours and improve thereafter.

(iii)  Fishermen Warning

Fishermen are advised not to venture into Gulf of Eden and southwest Arabian Sea along and off north Somalia coast during next 12 hours.